Nathan Lambert: Open models will match closed frontier on most benchmarks by end of 2026.
stated 2026-02-10 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · pending · source
Resolution: Top open-weights model within 3 AA index points of top model on 2026-12-31.
Bets
Public positions of people and markets with track records. Calibration is computed from resolved bets only; nothing here is this site's own judgment.
Forecasters
| Forecaster | Kind | Resolved | Hit rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lambert | researcher | 0 | — | — |
| Epoch AI | institution | 0 | — | — |
| Metaculus community | market | 0 | — | — |
Registry
Metaculus community: An open-weights model will rank
stated 2026-01-15 · resolves by 2026-12-31 · pending · source
Resolution: Any open-weights model holds the top style-controlled rank on LMArena text for at least 7 consecutive days before 2026-12-31.
Probability: 2026-01-15: 0.12 → 2026-05-01: 0.15 → 2026-08-24: 0.28
Epoch AI: The open-weights frontier lags the closed frontier by 9 to 14 months and the lag is roughly stable.
stated 2025-11-04 · resolves by 2027-06-30 · pending · source
Resolution: Epoch's own lag estimate on 2027-06-30 falls within 9 to 14 months, measured by benchmark-parity dating of open releases against closed releases.