Theses

The owner's falsifiable positions, ordered by this month's evidence drift. The pipeline attaches evidence; only the owner moves confidence. For other people's positions and their track records, see Bets.

Open-weights models will remain within one generation of the closed frontier through end of 2027.

confidence 0.7 · horizon 2027-12-31 · status open

drift: +10 /30d, +11 /90d · 9 supporting, 0 challenging

A lab leader's established pattern — especially the apologize-without-changing cycle (Zuckerberg archetype) and the mission-walkback trajectory (the pattern forming around Altman: non-profit commitments preceding a profit-and-power consolidation) — predicts the lab's future behavior better than its stated mission, and should weigh more than announcements in any trust assessment of a lab.

confidence 0.7 · horizon 2027-12-31 · status open

drift: +5 /30d, +5 /90d · 4 supporting, 1 challenging

Google's need to protect its consumer/ads core will keep it from leading enterprise AI through 2027 despite superior research pedigree and infrastructure — the strategy tax shows up as talent exodus, consumer-first product priorities, and leadership whose ambitions (big-picture science) don't match the commercial race.

confidence 0.6 · horizon 2027-12-31 · status open

drift: +3 /30d, +3 /90d · 5 supporting, 3 challenging