AI Change Tracker

Methods

Every source this site cites, in plain language: what a score there actually tells you, what it misses, and how much to trust it. Expand any entry β€” no need to leave the page.

Every source has a lens

No outlet is neutral β€” labs market themselves, critics assume the worst, consultancies sell the cure. This site's discipline is to name each lens and attribute opinions to their holders rather than absorb them as fact. The characterizations below are the owner's judgments; the pipeline reads them on every run.

All sources and their lenses

primary

aggregator

leaderboard

benchmark

curator

press

  • TechCrunch β€” AI β€” Startup/VC-ecosystem-friendly; funding numbers reliable, framing boosterish.
  • Crunchbase News β€” Funding data with light narrative; numbers good, significance framing thin.
  • CIO Dive β€” Enterprise-IT practitioner trade press; vendor-neutral-ish, survey-heavy.
  • The Register β€” AI/ML β€” Sardonic, vendor-critical; good at deployment-failure stories others skip.
  • 404 Media β€” Adversarial accountability journalism; assumes power will misbehave, then documents it.

owner

  • Owner notes β€” The owner's own measurements and judgments, labeled as such.

Benchmarks β€” structured tests with checkable answers

AA-Briefcase v1.1 low trust feeds: expand β–Ύ

Artificial Analysis's agentic knowledge-work benchmark (rubric pass rate plus analytical-quality and presentation Elo), now one of the ten evals inside the Intelligence Index. The agentic axis is currently fed only by Terminal-Bench, which by its own description skews to software engineering β€” and whose public leaderboard returned no rows this week. This is the closest available measure of an agent doing non-coding professional work, which is what the verdicts actually lack.

Tells you
TODO β€” adopted on autopilot; to be filled after a first review.
Does not tell you
TODO
Watch out for
Adopted on autopilot from a pipeline proposal; kind, axes, and description not yet reviewed.
Run by
TODO
Last reviewed
2026-10-20

The agentic axis is currently fed only by Terminal-Bench, which skews to software engineering and whose public leaderboard returned no rows this week β€” a real gap. AA-Briefcase, already folded into the Intelligence Index you track, is the closest available measure of agents doing non-coding professional work, so it directly fixes something the verdicts lack.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

AA-LCR v1.1 (Artificial Analysis long-context reasoning) low trust feeds: expand β–Ύ

Listed as a live evaluation inside Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2 in this run's fetch, measuring long-context reasoning. The long_context axis currently rests on Fiction.liveBench alone, which returned a bare navigation page with no benchmark table this run β€” so an axis both the coding-agent and hard-problems verdicts cite as evidence has no working source at all. No per-model AA-LCR values were present in this fetch.

Tells you
TODO β€” adopted on autopilot; to be filled after a first review.
Does not tell you
TODO
Watch out for
Adopted on autopilot from a pipeline proposal; kind, axes, and description not yet reviewed.
Run by
TODO
Last reviewed
2026-10-07

Fiction.liveBench, the only current source behind the long_context axis used by both the coding-agent and hard-problems verdicts, returned no usable benchmark table this run β€” that axis effectively has no working source right now. AA-LCR is a live eval already inside Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3.2 measuring the same thing, giving long_context a second, working source. Approving because it fills a real gap in what the verdicts can currently measure, not just because a new benchmark exists. No per-model AA-LCR scores were available this run, so there's nothing to apply yet beyond starting to track the method.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

Aider polyglot leaderboard medium trust feeds: coding expand β–Ύ

One developer's rigorous test of models solving hard programming exercises in six languages β€” a useful second opinion alongside SWE-bench, run the same way for every model.

Tells you
Whether a model can solve hard, self-contained programming exercises in six different programming languages, and follow precise editing instructions while doing it.
Does not tell you
Finding its way around a large existing project, real bug reports, speed, cost.
Watch out for
The exercises are public, so models may have seen them during training; the whole benchmark is maintained by one person; results depend on his specific tool.
Run by
Paul Gauthier (Aider)
Last reviewed
2026-08-01

The maintainer of Aider (a popular AI coding tool) tests each model on 225 hard practice exercises across six programming languages. The model has to actually solve the problem and deliver the answer in exactly the format the tool requires β€” sloppy instruction- following costs points even when the underlying solution is right.

It complements SWE-bench nicely: SWE-bench is large messy real-world projects in one language; this is small hard puzzles across six languages. A model that scores well on both is genuinely good at code.

How to read a score: check the "edit format compliance" column alongside the solve rate. A model with a high solve rate but low compliance is like a brilliant employee who ignores instructions β€” the raw score flatters it.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) low trust feeds: expand β–Ύ

Epoch's composite 'general capability' scale across 86 tracked benchmarks and 401 models, currently topped by GPT-6 Astra at 167. Epoch is already a trusted source here but no tracked method reads this index. It would give the reasoning axis a second, independently-constructed measurement instead of resting entirely on the Artificial Analysis blend β€” which now folds Terminal-Bench 4.0 into itself, so the reasoning and agentic axes are no longer independent.

Tells you
TODO β€” adopted on autopilot; to be filled after a first review.
Does not tell you
TODO
Watch out for
Adopted on autopilot from a pipeline proposal; kind, axes, and description not yet reviewed.
Run by
TODO
Last reviewed
2026-10-07

Confirmed live in this run's fetch with a current value β€” Epoch's composite reads 167, topped by Claude Opus 5.5, across 87 benchmarks and 407 models. This matters now because Artificial Analysis version 4.3.2 has folded Terminal-Bench 4.0 into its own index, meaning the reasoning and agentic axes are no longer independent readings. Epoch is already a trusted source here and gives reasoning a second, separately-built instrument.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

Fiction.liveBench medium trust feeds: long_context expand β–Ύ

Tests whether a model that claims to handle book-length input actually keeps the story straight all the way through, or quietly loses the plot β€” advertised capacity and real comprehension often differ a lot.

Tells you
Whether a model actually understands a very long document end to end β€” who knew what, when things happened β€” rather than just claiming a big capacity on the label.
Does not tell you
Long business documents or code specifically (it uses fiction), finding a single planted fact, speed on long inputs.
Watch out for
Built on fan fiction, which is a narrow style of text; question quality varies; relatively few questions at each length.
Run by
Fiction.live
Last reviewed
2026-08-01

Every model advertises how much text it can take in at once β€” hundreds of pages, in some cases. This test checks whether the model actually understands text that long, by feeding it long serialized stories and asking comprehension questions that require holding the whole narrative in mind: who knows what, what happened before what. That's much harder than finding one planted sentence, which is what vendors' own demos usually show.

How to read a score: this site records the score at the longest length bucket (roughly a 500-page book). The shape of decline matters more than any single number β€” a model that scores 95% on short text and 60% at full length has a real working capacity far below what the label says. When two long-document tests disagree, trust neither and read both.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

FrontierCode 1.1 (Artificial Analysis) low trust feeds: expand β–Ύ

A new Artificial Analysis evaluation of agentic software engineering in real open-source repositories, run independently and reported separately from their headline intelligence index. Worth considering because the coding axis currently leans on SWE-bench Verified and the Aider polyglot leaderboard, and Aider's board has not added a model since October 2025 β€” its newest entry is DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp and it contains no 2026 model at all. FrontierCode already turned up in the wild this month as the number Devin cited for Claude Haiku 5.5, so the owner will keep meeting it whether or not it is tracked.

Tells you
TODO β€” adopted on autopilot; to be filled after a first review.
Does not tell you
TODO
Watch out for
Adopted on autopilot from a pipeline proposal; kind, axes, and description not yet reviewed.
Run by
TODO
Last reviewed
2026-10-13

Aider's polyglot leaderboard is stale β€” no 2026-era model, newest entry is DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp from October 2025 β€” while FrontierCode 1.1 is already surfacing in the wild (cited for Claude Haiku 5.5) and comes from Artificial Analysis, the same independent measurement firm already trusted for the Intelligence Index and other tracked methods. Approving closes a real gap in how the coding axis gets measured.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

LMArena agent leaderboard (cost per task / Pareto frontier) low trust feeds: expand β–Ύ

LMArena now publishes agent rankings β€” overall, coding, and 'agents for work' β€” with a median dollar-cost per task and a cost/quality Pareto frontier. Nothing in the current method set combines agentic quality with cost, and Terminal-Bench (the existing agentic source) returned an empty table this run. This is the only live reading of agentic performance with price attached.

Tells you
TODO β€” adopted on autopilot; to be filled after a first review.
Does not tell you
TODO
Watch out for
Adopted on autopilot from a pipeline proposal; kind, axes, and description not yet reviewed.
Run by
TODO
Last reviewed
2026-10-07

The only agent measurement that returned real numbers this run β€” Claude Fable 5.1 at 14.31% and $5.43 a task, GPT-6.1 Sol at 11.23% and $0.56, with a cost-versus-quality frontier. Terminal-Bench, the existing agentic source, came back with an empty table, and nothing in the current method set pairs agent quality with price. Both the coding-agent and bulk-cheap verdicts weigh cost.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

SWE-bench Bash Only (500 instances) low trust feeds: expand β–Ύ

Now the default view on the SWE-bench Verified page: the same 500 instances, but every model run inside one shared mini-SWE-agent environment instead of each lab's own harness. That is a direct answer to the scaffold-variance problem the methods notes already name as SWE-bench Verified's honesty gap, so it would change what the coding axis actually measures rather than just adding another number.

Tells you
TODO β€” adopted on autopilot; to be filled after a first review.
Does not tell you
TODO
Watch out for
Adopted on autopilot from a pipeline proposal; kind, axes, and description not yet reviewed.
Run by
TODO
Last reviewed
2026-10-07

This run's SWE-bench fetch confirms Bash Only is now the default Verified view: the same 500 problems, every model run inside one shared agent environment instead of each lab's own scaffolding. Scaffold variance is the named honesty gap in the coding method we already track, so this changes how the coding axis is read, not just what feeds it.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

SWE-bench Verified high trust feeds: coding expand β–Ύ

Gives the model real bug reports from actual software projects and checks whether its fix passes the project's own tests β€” the closest thing to watching it do a programmer's job.

Tells you
Whether a model can fix real reported bugs in established software projects, working the way a human programmer would β€” read the bug report, find the problem in the code, write a fix that passes the project's tests.
Does not tell you
Building something new from scratch, visual/front-end work, languages other than Python, how fast or cheap the model is.
Watch out for
Vendors test with different amounts of supporting machinery around the model, so their numbers aren't directly comparable; older test items may have leaked into training data, letting models "remember" answers.
Run by
OpenAI / Princeton
Last reviewed
2026-08-01

The test takes 500 real bug reports filed against popular open-source software projects, each one checked by humans to make sure it's solvable. The model gets the bug report and the project's code, and has to produce a fix. The fix counts only if the project's own test suite passes β€” the same bar a human contributor's fix would have to clear. The score is simply the percentage of bugs fixed.

How to read a score: the supporting machinery matters almost as much as the model. A vendor's self-reported number using their own custom setup is not comparable to a stripped-down run, so prefer numbers the leaderboard maintainers verified themselves. Rule of thumb: a 5-point gap between comparable setups is a real difference in ability; a 2-point gap is coin-flip territory.

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Terminal-Bench high trust feeds: agentic expand β–Ύ

Drops the model into a computer's command line with a task like "get this software building again" and checks whether the end result actually works β€” a test of getting real multi-step work done, not answering questions.

Tells you
Whether a model can complete real multi-step technical tasks on its own β€” fixing a broken software build, wrangling data, administering a system β€” where success is checked by whether the end result works, not by opinion.
Does not tell you
Anything involving a visual interface or web browsing, working with people, tasks outside software and systems work.
Watch out for
Results depend heavily on the harness wrapped around the model (the scaffold), so the same model can post very different scores; tasks lean toward software engineering.
Run by
Stanford / Laude Institute
Last reviewed
2026-08-01

The test gives a model a working command-line environment and a goal β€” "this project won't compile, fix it," "clean up this dataset," "get this server configured" β€” then walks away. Success is checked mechanically: either the build passes, the data is right, the server runs, or it doesn't. No judges, no opinions. That makes it one of the cleanest measures of whether a model can do work rather than just answer questions.

How to read a score: every leaderboard entry names both a model and the harness it ran inside, and the harness matters a lot β€” same model, different harness, very different score. Comparing the same harness across models tells you about the models; comparing harnesses on one model tells you about the harnesses. This site records each model's best-harness number and marks who reported it.

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Aggregators β€” independent firms measuring everything the same way

Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index high trust feeds: reasoning expand β–Ύ

An independent firm runs the same battery of tests on every model and blends the results into one overall smarts score β€” useful for comparing models against each other, not as an absolute measure.

Tells you
General problem-solving ability β€” a blend of reasoning, knowledge, math, and coding tests, all run by the same independent team on each model's public service, so every model faces identical conditions.
Does not tell you
Long multi-step projects, taste and judgment in writing, performance on very long documents, anything requiring the model to use tools.
Watch out for
The recipe for blending the tests changes over time, so scores from different index versions aren't directly comparable.
Run by
Artificial Analysis
Last reviewed
2026-08-01

Artificial Analysis is an independent measurement firm β€” think of them as a Consumer Reports for AI models. They run a fixed set of tests against each model's public service themselves, rather than trusting vendor claims, and combine the results into a single number. Because every model takes the same tests under the same conditions, comparing two models' index scores is meaningful in a way that comparing two vendors' press releases is not.

How to read a score: treat it as a ranking tool, not a grade. A 5-point gap means one model is clearly a tier above; a 1–2 point gap is within the noise of measurement. Check that two scores come from the same index version before comparing them β€” the recipe gets revised periodically.

The same firm also measures output speed, price, and performance on multi-step tasks; this site uses those measurements for the speed, cost, and agentic columns.

Visit the source β†— Permalink

Leaderboards β€” live rankings from votes or submissions

LMArena (text) medium trust feeds: human_preference expand β–Ύ

Thousands of people vote blind on which of two anonymous answers they prefer, producing a popularity rating β€” it tells you which answers people like, which is not the same as which are right.

Tells you
Which model's answers ordinary people prefer, when shown two anonymous responses side by side and asked to pick β€” scored like a chess rating, where beating strong opponents raises your number.
Does not tell you
Whether answers are actually correct on hard problems, performance on long projects, anything a voter can't judge in a quick read.
Watch out for
Long, confident, nicely formatted answers win votes even when they're wrong; vendors quietly test unreleased models here to tune for votes; the scoring method was tightened in Aug 2026, shuffling rankings.
Run by
LMArena (formerly LMSYS)
Last reviewed
2026-08-16

LMArena shows visitors two answers to the same question, hides which model wrote each, and asks "which is better?" Millions of these votes are turned into a rating using the same math as chess ratings: beat highly-rated opponents often and your rating climbs.

It's the best available measure of "which model do people like talking to" β€” which matters for a daily assistant β€” but likability and correctness are different things. A model can win votes by being confident and well-formatted while being subtly wrong.

How to read a score: gaps under about 15 points are a statistical tie. Use the "style-controlled" version of the ranking, which tries to correct for pretty formatting winning votes. And treat sudden ranking jumps right after a scoring-method change (like the August 2026 one) as an artifact of the change until they persist for a few weeks.

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