OpenAI's predictions are real or marketing? They currently (Sept 3 2026) indicate that AGI will arrive December 2026
confidence 0.5 · horizon 2027-09-04 · status open
Falsifiers
- TODO: what specific, observable outcome would prove this wrong?
Evidence
- No evidence attached yet.
Confidence history
- 2026-09-04 → 0.5 — Initial — set on adoption; owner to adjust.